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1.
Zhonghua Lao Dong Wei Sheng Zhi Ye Bing Za Zhi ; 41(4): 280-286, 2023 Apr 20.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20245733

ABSTRACT

Objective: To investigate the wearing of masks and the knowledge of masks among high-risk positions for overseas import and pollution transmission. Methods: From May 14 to 17, 2022, a convenient sampling method was used to conduct an online survey among 963 workers in high-risk positions for overseas import and pollution transmission in Beijing. The behaviors of individual use and wearing masks, the distribution and supervision of the unit, the knowledge of personal mask protection and the subjective feelings of wearing masks were analyzed. The χ(2) test and logistic regression model were used to analyze the influencing factors of the correct selection of masks. Results: The majority of the workers in high-risk positions for overseas import and pollution transmission were male (86.0%, 828/963), age concentration in 18-44 years old (68.2%, 657/963), and the majority of them had college or bachelor degrees (49.4%, 476/963). 79.4%(765/963) of the workers chose the right type of masks, female, 45-59 years old and high school education or above were the risk factors for correct selection of masks (P <0.05). Workers had good behaviors such as wearing/removing masks, but only 10.5% (101/963) could correctly rank the protective effect of different masks. 98.4% (948/963) of the workers believed that their work units had provided masks to their employees, and 99.1% (954/963) and 98.2%(946/963) of them had organized training and supervision on the use of masks, respectively. 47.4%(456/963) of the workers were uncomfortable while wearing masks. Conclusion: The overall selection and use of masks among occupational groups in high-risk positions for overseas import and pollution transmission in China need to be further standardized. It is necessary to strengthen supervision and inspection on the use of masks among occupational groups, and take improvement measures to improve the comfort of wearing masks.


Subject(s)
Masks , Humans , Male , Female , Adolescent , Young Adult , Adult , Middle Aged , Cross-Sectional Studies , China , Surveys and Questionnaires , Beijing
2.
Cien Saude Colet ; 26(5): 1847-1852, 2021 May.
Article in Portuguese, English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20236334

ABSTRACT

The text presents and discusses the main aspects related to the current dynamics of the vaccine industry in the world and in Brazil, focusing on the demand created by the pandemic of COVID-19. At the global level, it briefly exposes the place currently occupied by Brazil within the scope of the BRICS and sets out and analyzes the options - identities and differences - of industrial policy in Brazil, China and India in the field of vaccines. Next, it analyzes the displacement of the vaccine industry, from a situation of exclusive production of immunizers to a majority control by the large pharmaceutical industry. Further on, it recovers recent fundamental aspects of the vaccine industry in Brazil, with an emphasis on Biomanguinhos / Fiocruz and the Butantan Institute. Finally, it discusses the successes and limitations of the technology transfer mechanism used by the two institutions, as well as the relevance of their historically assumed commitment to public health policies.


O texto apresenta e discute os principais aspectos relacionados à dinâmica atual da indústria de vacinas no mundo e no Brasil, com foco na demanda criada pela pandemia da COVID-19. No plano global, expõe brevemente o lugar ocupado atualmente pelo Brasil no âmbito dos BRICS e expõe e analisa as opções - identidades e diferenças - da política industrial de Brasil, China e Índia no campo das vacinas. A seguir, analisa o deslocamento da indústria de vacinas de uma situação de produção exclusiva de imunizantes para um controle majoritário da grande indústria farmacêutica. Mais adiante, recupera aspectos fundamentais recentes da indústria de vacinas no Brasil, com ênfase em Biomanguinhos/Fiocruz e no Instituto Butantan. Finalmente, discute os sucessos e limitações do mecanismo de transferência de tecnologia utilizado pelas duas instituições, bem como a relevância do compromisso historicamente assumido pelas mesmas com as políticas públicas de saúde.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Brazil , China , Humans , India , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2
5.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 99(44): e22847, 2020 Oct 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20238619

ABSTRACT

Numerous cases of pneumonia from a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China during December 2019.We determined the correlations of patient parameters with disease severity in patients with COVID-19.A total of 132 patients from Wuhan Fourth Hospital who had COVID-19 from February 1 to February 29 in 2020 were retrospectively analyzed.Ninety patients had mild disease, 32 had severe disease, and 10 had critical disease. The severe/critical group was older (P < .05), had a higher proportion of males (P < .05), and had a greater mortality rate (0% vs 61.9%, P < .05). The main symptoms were fever (n = 112, 84.8%) and cough (n = 96, 72.7%). Patients were treated with antiviral agents (n = 94, 71.2%), antibiotics (n = 92, 69.7%), glucocorticoids (n = 46, 34.8%), intravenous immunoglobulin (n = 38, 27.3%), and/or traditional Chinese medicine (n = 40, 30.3%). Patients in the severe/critical group received mechanical ventilation (n = 22, 16.7%) or high-flow nasal can-nula oxygen therapy (n = 6, 4.5%). Chest computed tomography (CT) indicated bilateral pneumonia in all patients. Relative to the mild group, the severe/critical group had higher levels of leukocytes, C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), D-dimer, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), liver enzymes, and myocardial enzymes (P < .05), and decreased levels of lymphocytes and blood oxygen partial pressure (P < .05).The main clinical symptoms of patients from Wuhan who had COVID-19 were fever and cough. Patients with severe/critical disease were more likely to be male and elderly. Disease severity correlated with increased leukocytes, CRP, PCT, BNP, D-dimer, liver enzymes, and myocardial enzymes, and with decreased lymphocytes and blood oxygen partial pressure.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adult , Aged , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/blood , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/blood , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 30(19): 54993-55008, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20245400

ABSTRACT

Environmental regulation restricts corporate pollution emissions and affects corporate investment decisions and asset allocation. Based on the data of A-share listed enterprises in China from 2013 to 2021 and the difference in differences (DID) model, this paper identifies the impact of environmental regulation on corporate financialization with the help of the "Blue Sky Protection Campaign (2018-2020)" (BSPC) of China. The results indicate that environmental regulation has a crowding-out effect on corporate financialization. Enterprises with stricter financing constraints receive more significant crowding-out effects. This paper provides a new perspective on the "Porter hypothesis." Under the constraint of financial resources and high environmental protection costs, enterprises carry out innovative activities and environmental protection investments by consuming financial assets to reduce the risk of environmental violations. The government's environmental regulation is an effective way to guide the financial development of enterprises, control environmental pollution, and promote enterprise innovation.


Subject(s)
Environmental Pollution , Investments , China , Organizations , Conservation of Natural Resources
9.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 9540, 2023 06 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20245378

ABSTRACT

China has implemented a series of long-term measures to control the spread of COVID-19, however, the effects of these measures on other chronic and acute respiratory infectious diseases remain unclear. Tuberculosis (TB) and scarlet fever (SF) serve as representatives of chronic and acute respiratory infectious diseases, respectively. In China's Guizhou province, an area with a high prevalence of TB and SF, approximately 40,000 TB cases and hundreds of SF cases are reported annually. To assess the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control on TB and SF in Guizhou, the exponential smoothing method was employed to establish a prediction model for analyzing the influence of COVID-19 prevention and control on the number of TB and SF cases. Additionally, spatial aggregation analysis was utilized to describe spatial changes in TB and SF before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. The parameters of the TB and SF prediction models are R2 = 0.856, BIC = 10.972 and R2 = 0.714, BIC = 5.325, respectively. TB and SF cases declined rapidly at the onset of COVID-19 prevention and control measures, with the number of SF cases decreasing for about 3-6 months and the number of TB cases remaining in decline for 7 months after the 11th month. The spatial aggregation of TB and SF did not change significantly before and after the COVID-19 outbreak but exhibited a marked decrease. These findings suggest that China's COVID-19 prevention and control measures also reduced the prevalence of TB and SF in Guizhou. These measures may have a long-term positive impact on TB, but a short-term effect on SF. Areas with high TB prevalence may continue to experience a decline due to the implementation of COVID-19 preventive measures in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases , Scarlet Fever , Tuberculosis , Humans , China
10.
J Int Med Res ; 51(5): 3000605231174303, 2023 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20245366

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore the transmission patterns and clinical course of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 as clustered and non-clustered cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Shenzhen, China. METHODS: This retrospective study included the patients that were confirmed by laboratory detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Shenzen between 19 January 2020 and 21 February 2020. Data on the epidemiological and clinical characteristics were analysed. The patients were divided into non-clustered and clustered groups. The time course, intervals between first and second COVID-19 cases and other transmission patterns were compared between the groups. RESULTS: The 417 patients were divided into clustered (n = 235) and non-clustered groups (n = 182). Compared with the non-clustered group, the clustered group had significantly more young (≤20 years) and old (>60 years) patients. The clustered group had significantly more severe cases (nine of 235; 3.83%) compared with the non-clustered group (three of 182; 1.65%). Patients with severe disease spent 4-5 more days of hospitalization than patients with moderate and mild disease. CONCLUSION: This retrospective study analysed the transmission patterns and clinical course of the first wave of COVID-19 infection in Shenzhen, China.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Retrospective Studies , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , China/epidemiology , Disease Progression
11.
PeerJ ; 11: e15443, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20245272

ABSTRACT

Background: Omicron is the recently emerged highly transmissible severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant that has caused a dramatic increase in coronavirus disease-2019 infection cases worldwide. This study was to investigate the association between demographic and laboratory findings, and the duration of Omicron viral clearance. Methods: Approximately 278 Omicron cases at the Ruijin Hospital Luwan Branch, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine were retrospectively analyzed between August 11 and August 31, 2022. Demographic and laboratory data were also collected. The association between demographics, laboratory findings, and duration of Omicron viral clearance was analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis and univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results: Univariate logistic regression analyses showed that a prolonged viral clearance time was significantly associated with older age and lower immunoglobulin (Ig) G and platelet (PLT) levels. Using multinomial logistic regression analyses, direct bilirubin, IgG, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and PLT were independent factors for longer viral shedding duration. The model combining direct bilirubin, IgG, APTT, and PLT identifies patients infected with Omicron whose viral clearance time was ≥7 days with 62.7% sensitivity and 83.4% specificity. Conclusion: These findings suggest that direct bilirubin, IgG, PLT, and APTT are significant risk factors for a longer viral shedding duration in patients infected with Omicron. Measuring levels of direct bilirubin, IgG, PLT, and APTT is advantageous to identify patients infected with Omicron with longer viral shedding duration.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Immunoglobulin G , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Partial Thromboplastin Time , Retrospective Studies , China , Bilirubin
13.
Lancet Neurol ; 22(6): 476-484, 2023 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20245121

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: No acute treatments targeting calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) have been approved for use in China or South Korea. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of rimegepant-an orally administered small molecule CGRP antagonist-with placebo in the acute treatment of migraine among adults in these countries. METHODS: This double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, multicentre phase 3 trial was done at 86 outpatient clinics at hospitals and academic medical centres (73 in China and 13 in South Korea). Participants were adults (≥18 years) with at least a 1-year history of migraine who had two to eight moderate or severe attacks per month and fewer than 15 headache days per month within the 3 months before the screening visit. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to 75 mg rimegepant or placebo to treat a single migraine attack of moderate or severe pain intensity. Randomisation was stratified by the use of preventive medication and by country. The allocation sequence was generated and implemented by study personnel using an interactive web-response system accessed online from each study centre. All participants, investigators, and the sponsor were masked to treatment assignment. The coprimary endpoints of freedom from pain and freedom from the most bothersome symptom (nausea, phonophobia, or photophobia) 2 h after dosing were assessed in the modified intention-to-treat (mITT) population (randomly assigned participants who took study medication for a migraine attack of moderate or severe pain intensity, and provided at least one efficacy datapoint after treatment) using Cochran-Mantel Haenszel tests. Safety was assessed in all participants who received rimegepant or placebo. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT04574362, and is completed. FINDINGS: 1431 participants were randomly assigned (716 [50%] to rimegepant and 715 [50%] to placebo). 668 (93%) participants in the rimegepant group and 674 (94%) participants in the placebo group received treatment. 1340 participants were included in the mITT analysis (666 [93%] in the rimegepant group and 674 [94%] in the placebo group). 2 h after dosing, rimegepant was superior to placebo for pain freedom (132 [20%] of 666 vs 72 [11%] of 674, risk difference 9·2, 95% CI 5·4-13·0; p<0·0001) and freedom from the most bothersome symptom (336 [50%] of 666 participants vs 241 [36%] of 674 participants, 14·8, 9·6-20·0; p<0·0001). The most common (≥1%) adverse events were protein in urine (8 [1%] of 668 participants in the rimepegant group vs 7 [1%] of 674 participants in the placebo group), nausea (7 [1%] of 668 vs 18 [3%] of 674), and urinary tract infection (5 [1%] of 668 vs 8 [1%] of 674). There were no rimegepant-related serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION: Among adults living in China or South Korea, a single dose of 75 mg rimegepant was effective for the acute treatment of migraine. Safety and tolerability were similar to placebo. Our findings suggest that rimegepant might be a useful new addition to the range of medications for the acute treatment of migraine in China and South Korea, but further studies are needed to support long-term efficacy and safety and to compare rimegepant with other medications for the acute treatment of migraine in this population. FUNDING: BioShin Limited. TRANSLATIONS: For the Chinese and Korean translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.


Subject(s)
Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide , Migraine Disorders , Adult , Humans , Migraine Disorders/diagnosis , Nausea , Pain , Double-Blind Method , Tablets/therapeutic use , China , Treatment Outcome
14.
Virol J ; 20(1): 122, 2023 06 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20245055

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Influenza virus (IFV) causes acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) and leads to high morbidity and mortality annually. This study explored the epidemiological change of IFV after the implementation of the universal two-child policy and evaluated the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the detection of IFV. METHODS: Hospitalized children under 18 years with ARTI were recruited from Hubei Maternal and Child Healthcare Hospital of Hubei Province from January 2014 to June 2022. The positive rates of IFV were compared among different periods by the implementation of the universal two-child policy and public health measures against COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Among 75,128 hospitalized children with ARTI, the positive rate of IFV was 1.98% (1486/75128, 95% CI 1.88-2.01). Children aged 6-17 years had the highest positive rate of IFV (166/5504, 3.02%, 95% CI 2.58-3.50). The positive rate of IFV dropped to the lowest in 2015, then increased constantly and peaked in 2019. After the universal two-child policy implementation, the positive rate of IFV among all the hospitalized children increased from 0.40% during 2014-2015 to 2.70% during 2017-2019 (RR 6.72, 95% CI 4.94-9.13, P < 0.001), particularly children under one year shown a violent increasing trend from 0.20 to 2.01% (RR 10.26, 95% CI 5.47-19.23, P < 0.001). During the initial outbreak of COVID-19, the positive rate of IFV decreased sharply compared to that before COVID-19 (0.35% vs. 3.37%, RR 0.10, 95% CI 0.04-0.28, P < 0.001), and then rebounded to 0.91%, lower than the level before COVID-19 (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.20-0.36, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: IFV epidemiological pattern has changed after the implementation of the universal two-child policy. More attention should be emphasized to comprehend the health benefits generated by COVID-19 restrictions on IFV transmission in future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Orthomyxoviridae , Respiratory Tract Infections , Child , Humans , Adolescent , Child, Hospitalized , Pandemics , COVID-19/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology
16.
J Med Virol ; 95(6): e28861, 2023 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20245033

ABSTRACT

The seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoVs) have zoonotic origins, repeated infections, and global transmission. The objectives of this study are to elaborate the epidemiological and evolutionary characteristics of HCoVs from patients with acute respiratory illness. We conducted a multicenter surveillance at 36 sentinel hospitals of Beijing Metropolis, China, during 2016-2019. Patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) were included, and submitted respiratory samples for screening HCoVs by multiplex real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assays. All the positive samples were used for metatranscriptomic sequencing to get whole genomes of HCoVs for genetical and evolutionary analyses. Totally, 321 of 15 677 patients with ILI or SARI were found to be positive for HCoVs, with an infection rate of 2.0% (95% confidence interval, 1.8%-2.3%). HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-HKU1 infections accounted for 18.7%, 38.3%, 40.5%, and 2.5%, respectively. In comparison to ILI cases, SARI cases were significantly older, more likely caused by HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43, and more often co-infected with other respiratory pathogens. A total of 179 full genome sequences of HCoVs were obtained from 321 positive patients. The phylogenetical analyses revealed that HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-OC43 continuously yielded novel lineages, respectively. The nonsynonymous to synonymous ratio of all key genes in each HCoV was less than one, indicating that all four HCoVs were under negative selection pressure. Multiple substitution modes were observed in spike glycoprotein among the four HCoVs. Our findings highlight the importance of enhancing surveillance on HCoVs, and imply that more variants might occur in the future.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus 229E, Human , Coronavirus NL63, Human , Coronavirus OC43, Human , Humans , Seasons , Betacoronavirus , China , Coronavirus OC43, Human/genetics
17.
Infect Genet Evol ; 112: 105463, 2023 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20244841

ABSTRACT

Recent reports on identification of canine coronavirus (CCoV) in humans have emphasized the urgency to strengthen surveillance of animal CoVs. The fact that recombinations between CCoV with feline, porcine CoVs brought about new types of CoVs indicated that more attention should be paid to domestic animals like dogs, cats and pigs, and the CoVs they carried. However, there are about ten kinds of CoVs that infect above animals, and thus representative CoVs with zoonotic potentials were considered in this study. Multiplex RT-PCR against CCoV, Feline coronavirus (FCoV), porcine deltacoronavirus and porcine acute diarrhea syndrome coronavirus was developed to investigate the prevalence of CoVs from domestic dogs in Chengdu, Southwest China. Samples from a total of 117 dogs were collected from a veterinary hospital, and only CCoV (34.2%, 40/117) was detected. Therefore, this study focused on CCoV and its characteristics of S, E, M, N and ORF3abc genes. Compared with CoVs that are capable of infecting humans, CCoV strains showed highest nucleotide identity with the novel canine-feline recombinant detected from humans (CCoV-Hupn-2018). Phylogenetic analysis based on S gene, CCoV strains were not only clustered with CCoV-II strains, but also closely related to FCoV-II strains ZJU1617 and SMU-CD59/2018. As for assembled ORF3abc, E, M, N sequences, CCoV strains had the closest relationship with CCoV-II (B203_GZ_2019, B135_JS_2018 and JS2103). What's more, specific amino acid variations were found, especially in S and N proteins, and some mutations were consistent with FCoV, TGEV strains. Altogether, this study provided a novel insight into the identification, diversification and evolution of CoVs from domestic dogs. It is of top priority to recognize zoonotic potential of CoVs, and continued comprehensive surveillance will help better understand the emergence, spreading, and ecology of animal CoVs.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Coronavirus, Canine , Dog Diseases , Animals , Dogs , Cats , Humans , Swine , Coronavirus, Canine/genetics , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/veterinary , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , Phylogeny , Molecular Epidemiology , Mutation , Animals, Domestic , China/epidemiology , Dog Diseases/epidemiology
18.
PLoS One ; 18(6): e0284684, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20244834

ABSTRACT

Given the growing importance of environmental protection in China, this study investigated the determinants of the financial reporting quality of environmental, social and governance (ESG) firms listed in China. The quality of financial reporting shows how informative the accounting numbers are for decision-making. Because business outlook can influence financial reporting quality, this study examined predictable, moderately predictable and unpredictable business outlooks. The study randomly selected 100 firms from the 2021 China ESG Top 500 Outstanding Enterprises published by the Sina Finance ESG Rating Centre and then analysed those firms in 2018, 2019 and 2020. It investigated determinants (financial health, governance and earnings management), controlling for the influence of known variables (firm age and firm-specific risk) on financial reporting quality measured as accruals quality and earnings smoothness. Ordinary robust least square regression was conducted. Financial health had a negative influence, but governance variables and earnings management did not affect financial reporting quality. Firm-specific risk had a positive effect, but firm age did not influence financial reporting quality. Changes in business outlook had no impact on the determinants' effect on financial reporting quality. The study found that ESG firms did not engage in earnings management and aggressively manage earnings, pointing to ethical behaviour. This is the first study to contribute to understanding the financial reporting quality of ESG firms listed in China. It examined different business outlooks to understand ESG firms' behaviour towards financial reporting quality. The findings invite replicable studies outside China to understand the contextual validity and reliability of the financial reporting quality of ESG firms, and to investigate the effect of determinants not examined in this study.


Subject(s)
Commerce , Income , Reproducibility of Results , China
19.
Virol J ; 20(1): 114, 2023 06 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20244820

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 infection continues all over the world, causing serious physical and psychological impacts to patients. Patients with COVID-19 infection suffer from various negative emotional experiences such as anxiety, depression, mania, and alienation, which seriously affect their normal life and is detrimental to the prognosis. Our study is aimed to investigate the effect of psychological capital on alienation among patients with COVID-19 and the mediating role of social support in this relationship. METHODS: The data were collected in China by the convenient sampling. A sample of 259 COVID-19 patients completed the psychological capital, social support and social alienation scale and the structural equation model was adopted to verify the research hypotheses. RESULTS: Psychological capital was significantly and negatively related to the COVID-19 patients' social alienation (p < .01). And social support partially mediated the correlation between psychological capital and patients' social alienation (p < .01). CONCLUSION: Psychological capital is critical to predicting COVID-19 patients' social alienation. Social support plays an intermediary role and explains how psychological capital alleviates the sense of social alienation among patients with COVID-19 infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Social Capital , Humans , Social Support , Anxiety , China
20.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 1039, 2023 06 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20244507

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models to forecast the risk trend of the COVID-19 pandemic timely are of great significance to control the pandemic, but the requirement of manual operation and many parameters hinders their efficiency and value for application. This study aimed to establish a convenient and prompt one for monitoring emerging infectious diseases online and achieving risk assessment in real time. METHODS: The Optimized Moving Average Prediction Limit (Op-MAPL) algorithm model analysed real-time COVID-19 data online and was validated using the data of the Delta variant in India and the Omicron in the United States. Then, the model was utilized to determine the infection risk level of the Omicron in Shanghai and Beijing. RESULTS: The Op-MAPL model can predict the epidemic peak accurately. The daily risk ranking was stable and predictive, with an average accuracy of 87.85% within next 7 days. Early warning signals were issued for Shanghai and Beijing on February 28 and April 23, 2022, respectively. The two cities were rated as medium-high risk or above from March 27 to April 20 and from April 24 to May 5, indicating that the pandemic had entered a period of rapid increase. After April 21 and May 26, the risk level was downgraded to medium and became stable by the algorithm, indicating that the pandemic had been controlled well and mitigated gradually. CONCLUSIONS: The Op-MAPL relies on nothing but an indicator to assess the risk level of the COVID-19 pandemic with different data sources and granularities. This forward-looking method realizes real-time monitoring and early warning effectively to provide a valuable reference to prevent and control infectious diseases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , United States , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemics/prevention & control , China/epidemiology
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